Good morning and welcome to Breeder’s Cup week! For the uninitiated, the Breeder’s Cup are a group of races that place every year, pitting the very best runners from every division against one another. This year’s Breeder’s Cup weekend is taking place at Del Mar Racetrack this Friday and Saturday. I will be putting out an extra video on Friday morning to cover the Friday races along with my usual Saturday video so be on the lookout for that.
While we wait, we’ll take a look at Wednesday’s races from Churchill Downs where we expect cloudy skies and cool temperatures with a fast main track. Their turf course is undergoing some renovations so there is no turf racing. Let’s get to work.
Churchill Downs:
Race 2: Lady Livermore – 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 10/1)
Two year old fillies race 6 furlongs on the main track and none of the ones, in this maiden claiming event, who have run look like world beaters. Lady Livermore is a bit intriguing at a price here. She has one start under her belt where she hopped at the start while sprinting on turf. She made an eye catching move in the stretch to get third place that day. She’s better bred for dirt and races for a trainer who’s won 30% of her races in 2021 and has won with an impressive 3 of 7 runners going turf to dirt over the last five years. She’s actually got a three race win streak with her turf to dirt runners dating back a little over a year. Value at 10/1 or higher.
Race 7: Buckingham Prince – 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 2/1)
Maiden special weight runners go 6 furlongs. There are a few first time starters here and maybe one of them can run but they’ll have to run very well at first asking to take down Buckingham Prince. Trainer Norm Casse (21%) retains the services of Tyler Gaffalione, who led all riders at the Keeneland meet, for this runner. He’s had three strong workouts since his last race and he’s head and shoulders above the rest of the field in terms of speed figures. Unless one if the first time starters is a killer, Buckingham Prince looks like good value at 2/1 to go coast to coast like butter on toast.
Race 8: Blake B. – 1 pt win (Us Morning Line Odds: 7/2)
Claimers go a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Our selection, Blake B. will be running for the second time for new connections after a quick return on investment for his new owners with a maiden win at Keeneland. Trainer Chris Hartman (21%) took this runner from a 5% barn so the 19 point speed figure improvement isn’t completely unexpected. If he runs back to his last race, the rest are running for second place.
Race 10: Bless The Kitten – 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)
Starter Allowance runners go a mile and an eighth on dirt and on the surface there looks like there should be some lace on here. Bless The Kitten will likely be a part of that early scrimmage but this four year old gelding winner of 3 of his last 4 races and 7 of his last 10 will take some beating here. Coming off a career top score at Belterra park, Bless The Kitten stalked the speed, took over halfway through the race and drew off to win by nearly 6 lengths. A 27% winning trainer has spotted their runners well and they win with jockey Albin Jimenez 27% of the time. Tough customer right back.
Best of luck to everyone playing Wednesday’s races from Churchill Downs!
