Thursday’s Race Recap from Keeneland:
(All odds US)
Keeneland:
Race 2: 1st@ 1.00/1 ?????
Race 4: 2nd@ 0.60/1
Race 10: SCRATCH
Strange day. I had a feeling our horses would get bet way down and they did. We started our day with Waters of Merom winning Race 2 by an emphatic 8 lengths making the 3/1 morning line odds look like EEEEEASY money! We got odds of 1/1 here in the States so hopefully a few of you crushed the bookmakers with that one. In Race 4, Lemonadeatthelatch gave Barber Road everything he could handle but came up just short as the 3/5 favorite. Our selection scratched from Race 10 keeping our streak alive of at least one scratch more or less everyday ?.
We’ll stay at Keeneland for Friday’s race card where there’s a 50% chance of rain. I’ll be handicapping for fast and firm conditions and crossing my fingers. Let’s get started:
Keeneland:
Race 3: Constitutional Law – 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 6/1)
Good looking group of maiden runners race a mile and a sixteenth here. Our likely favorite is Waxman who breaks from the outside. He posted a gaudy speed figure on debut running second to a good one and defeating Cody’s Wish who won nicely next out. Given the likely low odds and the stretch in distance from one turn to two I’m taking a chance with Constitutional Law. This runner is a full brother to Florida Derby and Donn Handicap winner, Constitution and caught a sloppy track on debut about a year ago where he just missed second place finishing second behind a runner who would go onto be stakes placed later that year. Constitutional Law gets blinkers and Lasix for the first time today and his workouts have been strong. Trainer Mike McCarthey wins with 22% of runners off layoffs like these and jockey Flavian Prat has done well here in Kentucky. Value at 6/1 or higher.
Race 7: Joy Epifora – 1 pt win (Us Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Turf runners go a mile and a sixteenth and many times, these turf races don’t contain much speed but that’s not the case here as several of these runners prefer to race on or near the early lead. Joy Epifora prefers to come from off the pace and that’s what makes this one dangerous. She appears to have the best late kick in the field and although she’s 0 for 2 at the distance, she possesses the second highest speed figure overall at the distance. Joy Epifora is dropping from the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes where she finished 4th behind two very good runners – the ill fated Santa Barbara and the recently retired Mean Mary. Jockey and trainer are both doing well these days. Worth an 8/1 play.
Race 9: Elle Z – 1 pt win (Us Morning Line Odds: 8/1)
Turf sprinters race 5 1/2 furlongs here and Elle Z looks like the speed of the speed. A winner in 6 of 13 starts and 3 of 9 races at this distance, including a 47/1 upset a year ago on this surface, Elle Z hasn’t raced since August but has been working out quickly. Trainer is 22% in turf sprints and he and jockey Mitch Murrill have combined for a robust 29% win percentage here at Keeneland. A gate to wire threat at 8/1
Best of luck to everyone playing Friday’s races from Keeneland!
