Hey all, my name is Armchair Handicapping and I am honored to do a guest submission of my model leans for the 10/08 Keeneland Racing card! I have been building and developing a model for horse racing over the last 2.5-3 years and have begun posting my Model Leans on Twitter. You can find/follow me @ArmchairHndcp!
Using the Model Lean Chart, I have broken my favorite 5 horses into an A Tier and a B Tier. Tier horses represent the higher winning % horses, best used for WPS bets and smaller exotics. A Tiers are also handy in using for Multi-Race Bets (i.e. Doubles, Pick 3’s, Pick 4’s, etc.) B Tier horses represent strong ITM % horses and should be used in longer exotics (i.e. Trifectas, Superfectas). Feel free to reach out to my Twitter account mentioned above if you have any questions! BoL!
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming $30,000 – 1 1/16 Mile Dirt
Top Pick – #2 MY FAVORITE UNCLE
A Tiers: (2),6,5
B Tiers: 3,10
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight $84,000 – 6 Furlongs Dirt
Top Pick – #7 TAPPED OFF
A Tiers: (7),9,5
B Tiers: 3,4
Race 3 – Allowance $86,000 – 1 1/8 Mile TURF
Top Pick – #1 KITTANSETT
A Tiers: (1),8
B Tiers: 7,3,11
Race 4 – Optional Claiming $86,000 – 1 Mile Dirt
Top Pick – #1 BALADI
A Tiers: (1),5
B Tiers: 2,6,4
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight $84,000 – 6 Furlongs Dirt
Top Pick – #1 JACK BACKED
A Tiers: (1),8,4
B Tiers: 3,7
Race 6 – Woodford Stks G2 $200,000 – 5 1/2 Furlongs TURF
Top Pick – #2 GOLDEN PAL
A Tiers: (2),4
B Tiers: 6,7,3
Race 7 – Thoroughbred Club of America Stks G2 $250,000 – 6 Furlongs Dirt
Top Pick – #6 BELL’S THE ONE
A Tiers: (6),1,4
B Tiers: 3,2
Race 8 – First Lady Stks G1 $400,000 – 1 Mile TURF
Top Pick – #3 ALTHIQA
A Tiers: (3),10
B Tiers: 6,13,5
Race 9 – Claiborne Breeders Futurity Stks G1 $500,000 – 1 1/16 Mile Dirt
Top Pick – #5 DON’T WAIT UP
A Tiers: (5),3,13
B Tiers: 1,12
Race 10 – Keeneland Turf Mile G1 $750,000 – 1 Mile TURF
Top Pick – #11 DIAMOND OOPS
A Tiers: (11),7,6
B Tiers: 13,4
Race 11 – Maiden Special Weight $84,000 – 1 1/16 Mile Dirt
Top Pick – #6 SURFER DUDE
A Tiers: 6,7
B Tiers: 3,5,10
Best of luck and be sure to reach out with any questions!
